The U.S. is quietly increasing its presence in the Gulf and speeding up arms sales to several Gulf Arab states against a potential Iranian strike in advance of increased sanctions against Iran. The U.S. Navy has been deployed to key strategic areas where they will be capable of knocking hostile missiles down in flight to the region. U.S. officials have let it be known that it now has Patriot batteries in four Gulf states – Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. These moves are designed to deter Iran from launching attacks against its Sunni Muslim neighbors and to send a message to Israel that a preemptive strike against Iran is unnecessary. From the BBC:
The U.S. position on Iran was delicately summed up on 7 January by Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “I believe they’re on a path that has a strategic intent to develop nuclear weapons, and have been for some time. I think that outcome is potentially a very, very destabilizing outcome. On the other hand, when asked about striking Iran, specifically, that also has a very, very destabilizing outcome.”
This defensive measure is seen as an adjustment in the U.S. approach since the failure to engage the Iranians diplomatically has not yielded any results. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told reporters last week that the U.S. will now press for additional sanctions against the Iranian government. Listen to an excerpt from Secretary Clinton on Power and Persuation: A Conversation with Secretaries Clinton and Gates with Frank Sesno and Christiane Amanpour on Iranian nuclear ambitions:
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On September 15, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) held a small gathering at the Russell Senate Office Building to coincide with the release of its new report: Meeting the Challenge: Time is Running Out. The event was hosted by the report’s authors: former Senators Dan Coates and Charles Robb and Retired General Chuck Wald.
Senator Joseph Lieberman opened the discussion by describing the report as “unusual” because it spoke difficult truths. Lieberman described America’s failure to halt Iran’s quest for a nuclear breakout ability as “just a stark fact,” and described the advent of a nuclear armed Iran as a “ticking time bomb.” The Senator tentatively supported the Obama Administration’s effort to negotiate with Iran, but warned against allowing the Islamic Republic to “run out the clock.” He discussed new legislation that he is co-sponsoring, the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act. The act would sanction foreign companies that import fuel to Iran.
Senator Robb warned that Tehran’s recent agreement to negotiate could be a diplomatic rope-a-dope but cautiously supported negotiations. He then laid out several factors that have recently influenced the nuclear standoff between the US and Iran: (1) the election of President Obama (2) unrest following the Iranian elections this summer (3) new Israeli leadership (4) and Iran’s continued progress on mastering the nuclear fuel cycle. Senator Robb described the phased approach to Iran contained in the BPC report that begins with engagement and includes economic sanctions and lastly surgical air strikes. Robb believes that the Iranians are continuing to work towards the ability to construct a nuclear weapon and said the military option might need to be employed as early as the first half of 2010.
Senator Coates reiterated that an Iranian nuclear weapon is an existential threat for Israel. He also discussed the importance of negotiating from strength, and how the US should engage Iran.
General Chuck Wald, who described himself as “not a military guy looking for a fight,” warned that “we may have to do something militarily, that’s a reality.” He made clear that military action would come only in the form of surgical air strikes and would not require ground troops. He emphasized this to counter the notion that a conflict in Iran would stretch the military even thinner in addition to two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Wald outlined three likely outcomes of the current nuclear standoff: (1) nothing is done and the Iranians acquire nuclear weapons, an event that he warned would alter the dynamics of the security environment of the Middle East (2) Israel executes air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities likely prompting Iranian retaliation against the US and possibly Israel, (3) the US takes action.
Some of the military preparations the General presented includes: ensuring our allies in the region are properly equipped; building up our own defensive forces in the region; making accommodations for the possible blocking of the Hormuz Strait; and clearly conveying to Iran that there are serious consequences to the continued pursuit of nuclear weapons; including a US attack.
The “Green Revolution” in Iran is being fueled by the numerous ways people are sharing information through social networking sites, like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Online media is playing an important role in reporting on the ongoing political protests. It has been the most effective means of communication between what’s happening in Iran and the rest of the world since there is a growing crackdown on independent Iranian and foreign journalists who want to relay what is being said on the streets and to tell the world what is happening in Tehran and other parts of Iran. From the AP:
U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard C. Holbrooke, held a meeting at The Hague with Iranian Foreign Minister Mahdi Akhundzadeh. The Los Angeles Times reports this was the Obama administration’s first face-to-face meeting with Iranian officials and represents an early move in Obama’s effort to reestablish dialogue after 30 years of hostility. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said in a news conference that Holbrooke and Akhundzadeh “agreed to keep in touch.” Iran saw this exchange differently:
Afterward, the deputy foreign minister, Mahdi Akhundzadeh, denied that any negotiations with U.S. officials had taken place. “It is neither on our agenda nor have we any plans to negotiate with the Americans,” he was quoted by the official Islamic Republic News Agency as saying.
The US-Iranian relations were not always so cool. Early in the 20th century, Iran looked to the US to fend off European domination of the Persian Gulf and after WWII, the US and the Shah of Iran developed a close alliance that lasted over 30 years. Why did relations turn sour? Listen to a clip from Iran: The Looming Confrontation that illustrates this point.
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The U.S. is quietly increasing its presence in the Gulf and speeding up arms sales to several Gulf Arab states against a potential Iranian strike in advance of increased sanctions against Iran. The U.S. Navy has been deployed to key strategic areas where they will be capable of knocking hostile missiles down in flight to the region. U.S. officials have let it be known that it now has Patriot batteries in four Gulf states – Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. These moves are designed to deter Iran from launching attacks against its Sunni Muslim neighbors and to send a message to Israel that a preemptive strike against Iran is unnecessary. From the BBC:
On September 15, the